- Part I
Required background
Basics of probability: probability spaces, conditional probability, discrete and continuous random variables. See Background material.
Syllabus
Introduction to decision analysis. Elements and structure of decision problems. Influence diagrams (ID). Decision trees (DT). Review of probability calculus. Solving ID and DT. Risk profile of a strategy. The value of information. Risk attitudes and utility functions.
Teaching material
- [MHD] “Making Hard Decisions” - R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Pacific Grove: Duxbury, 2001
- Some slides sometimes used in the class (courtesy of George Washington University)
Further readings
-
Survey of applications
- J.L. Corner, C.W. Kirkwood, “Decision analysis applications in the operations research literature, 1970-1989”, Operations Research, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 206-219, 1991. (full-text available from computers connected to the university network)
- D.L. Keefer, C.W. Kirkwood, J. L. Corner, “Perspective on decision analysis applications, 1990–2001”. Decision analysis, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 4-22, 2004.
-
Example of decision analysis process
- H. Neckles, J. Lyons, G. Guntenspergen, G. Shriver, S. Adamowicz, “Use of Structured Decision Making to Identify Monitoring Variables and Management Priorities for Salt Marsh Ecosystems”. Estuaries and Coasts, vol. 38, no.4, pp. 1215-1232, 2015.
Background material
-
S. Ross, “A first course in probability”, Pearson Education Limited, 10th ed., 2019. Chapters: 2-5.
-
Some exercises on probability calculus (in Italian)