Decision Analysis (A.Y. 2022/23)

- Lectures

• Wednesday, October 5

  • Course introduction [essential info]

• Friday, October 7

  • Introduction to decision analysis [MHD - Ch. 1]
  • Videos on shared drive: 02 DA Introduction, 03 Elements Decision Problem

• Wednesday, October 12

  • Influence diagrams [MHD - Ch. 3]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 04 Influence Diagrams

• Friday, October 14

  • Examples of IDs [MHD - Ch. 3]
  • Video lectures on shared drive: 05 ID Examples 1, 06 ID Examples 2

• Wednesday, October 19

  • Decision trees. Examples of DTs [MHD - Ch. 3]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 07 Decision Trees

• Friday, October 21

  • Review of probability calculus [MHD - Ch. 7]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 08 Probability Basics

• Wednesday, October 26

  • Modeling uncertainty in IDs and DTs [MHD - Ch. 3]
  • Video lectures on shared drive: 09 Modeling Uncertainty

• Friday, October 28

  • Solving a Decision Tree [MHD - Ch. 4]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 10 Solving DT

• Wednesday, November 2

  • Exercises on Influence Diagrams

• Friday, November 4

  • The value of information [MHD - Ch. 12]
  • Video lectures on shared drive: 11 Value Information, 12 Value Information, 12b EVII Example

• Wednesday, November 9

  • Exercises on Decision Trees

• Friday, November 11

  • Risk profiles [MHD - Ch. 4]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 13 Risk Profiles

• Wednesday, November 16

  • Utility functions [MHD - Ch. 13]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 14 Utility Functions

• Friday, November 18

  • Risk attitude [MHD - Ch. 13]
  • Video lecture on shared drive: 15 Risk Attitude, 16 Estimating utility functions

• Wednesday, November 23

  • Exercises on utility functions

• Friday, November 25

  • Exercises on Part I

• Wednesday, November 30

  • Introduction to sequential decision problems [Slides - 01_Intro.pdf] [MDP Ch. 1 and 3]
  • Video on shared drive: 17 Introduction Sequential Decision Problems

• Friday, December 2

  • Midterm exam

• Wednesday, December 7

  • Tools for the simulation of stochastic systems [Slides - 02_Tools.pdf - 02_b_Homework.pdf]
  • Videos on shared drive: 19 Simulation Tools, 19b Homework

• Wednesday, December 14

  • Review of Markov chains [Slides - 03_MarkovChains.pdf - 03_b_Homework.pdf] [DES Ch. 7]
  • Videos on shared drive: 20 Markov Chains, 20b Homework

• Friday, December 16

  • Formulation of MDP [Slides - 04_MDP.pdf] [MDP Ch. 2 - DPOC Vol. I, Ch. 1]
  • Videos on shared drive: 21 MDP, 29b IC Code

• Wednesday, December 21

  • Deterministic Dynamic Programming [Slides - 05_DP_deterministic.pdf] [PDM - DP - DPOC Vol. I, Ch. 1]
  • Example: Home Energy Management System [Slides - 05_b_HEMS.pdf]
  • Videos on shared drive: 22 Dynamic Programming, 22b Shortest Path, 22c HEMS

• Wednesday, January 11

  • Stochastic Dynamic Programming [Slides - 06_DP_stochastic.pdf] [PDM - DP - DPOC Vol. I, Ch. 1]
  • Example: Inventory Control [Slides - 06_b_InventoryControl.pdf]
  • Videos on shared drive: 23 Stochastic DP, 23b Optimal IC

• Friday, January 13

  • Example: Optimal Stopping Problems [Slides - 06_c_Purchase.pdf]
  • Example: Gambling Problem [Slides - 06_d_Gambling.pdf]
  • Videos on shared drive: 24 Purchase with Deadline, 24b Optimal Stopping, 24c Gambling

• Wednesday, January 18

  • Stochastic Dynamic Programming over Infinite Horizon [Slides - 07_DP_infinite.pdf] [PDM - DP - DPOC Vol. I, Ch. 7]
  • Videos on shared drive: 25 Stochastic DP over Infinite Horizon, 25b Project Work FAQ

• Friday, January 20

  • Example: Component Replacement [Slides - 07_b_Component.pdf]
  • Example: Minimum-Time Problem [Slides - 07_c_Spider.pdf]
  • Conclusion [Slides - 08_DP_Conclusion.pdf]
  • Videos on shared drive: 26 Infinite Horizon Examples, 26b Component Replacement, 26c Minimum Time, 26d Conclusion